Fall 2025 Freight Forecast: Navigating a Shifting Market
- LFS
- Aug 31
- 6 min read
Fall 2025 Freight Forecast: Navigating a Shifting Market
The U.S. freight market in the late summer and early fall of 2025 is in a state of flux. Rather than a widespread economic surge, the industry is experiencing a slow rebalancing. The surprising dynamic is a growing supply-demand imbalance, not from a freight boom, but from a steady reduction in the number of trucks on the road. For logistics professionals and carriers, this means that profitability hinges on being agile and focusing on specific, high-yield niches. Here are the top opportunities as we head into the second half of the year.
Executive Summary: Top 5 Opportunities in Freight
The Pacific Northwest Produce & Reefer Surge: With a projected record Washington state apple crop and a strong Idaho potato harvest, the Pacific Northwest is gearing up for a major seasonal peak. This predictable demand surge will create a bonanza of high-paying, long-haul refrigerated freight lanes heading east.
Southeast & South Central Flatbed: The American South remains the most lucrative region for flatbed freight. Demand is fueled by a resilient construction sector, a continuous stream of federal infrastructure projects, and the need for materials for storm recovery. This provides a robust pipeline of high-paying loads, especially for vocational and heavy haul truckers.
The Government Freight Advantage: Freight from government-funded projects is a stable, non-cyclical source of revenue. The ongoing federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is funding large-scale construction, while the active Atlantic hurricane season is creating high-paying, short-term work for carriers with government contracts, particularly for end-dump and heavy haul equipment.
Midwest Dry Van & Distribution: The Midwest has emerged as the leading region for dry van freight, surpassing even the Southeast in average rates. Its central location, diverse economy, and concentration of manufacturing and e-commerce distribution centers provide reliable and consistent freight volume that is less vulnerable to the import-driven volatility of coastal markets.
Port Drayage & East Coast Dominance: A long-term shift of import volumes from the West Coast to the East and Gulf Coasts is gaining momentum. Major gateways like the Port of New York/New Jersey, Savannah, and Houston are posting consistent growth, creating strong, localized demand for drayage and short-haul transload services.
National Freight Market Overview
Spot Market, Rates, and Economic Fundamentals
The overall truckload spot market is in a prolonged state of rebalancing. Despite high load-to-truck ratios, rates remain stubbornly flat. The brief seasonal uptick that followed the Fourth of July holiday has faded. Current national average spot rates are holding near their 2024 levels, with dry van rates averaging about $2.03 per mile, reefers at $2.39 per mile, and flatbeds at $2.50 per mile. This indicates the market has not yet found a new, higher baseline.
This stalled rate environment is tied to mixed economic signals. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with industrial and consumer-related freight volumes described as underwhelming in July. Weak consumer spending and cautious inventory strategies from retailers are limiting the overall volume of available freight.
The Capacity Crunch
The most significant development is the dramatic rebalancing of capacity. The high load-to-truck ratios that are being reported are not due to a surging demand for freight, but rather a direct result of a shrinking pool of available trucks. Numerous small carriers that entered the market during the 2021–2022 freight boom are now exiting at an accelerating pace. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, dozens of carriers have ceased operations, causing the highest rate of commercial bankruptcy filings in over a decade.
This capacity contraction is the primary reason for the tightening market conditions. Load-to-truck ratios have surged year-over-year: the flatbed ratio is up an astounding 101.4%, reefer is up 84.3%, and dry van has increased by 57.3%. Despite this tightening, rates have remained flat or slightly declined, underscoring that the market is in a painful, drawn-out correction.
Regional Freight Market Breakdown
Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) The Northeast remains a consumption-heavy region with a strong flow of inbound retail freight. Outbound dry van rates, however, are the lowest in the nation, averaging just $1.86 per mile. This makes it a challenging market for securing profitable backhauls, leading many carriers to reposition in the South or Midwest.
Southeast (VA/NC/SC/GA/FL and TN/AL/MS) The Southeast is a diverse and resilient freight market. It’s the undisputed leader for flatbed freight, with the nation's highest average rate at $2.65 per mile. This strong demand is driven by a steady stream of commercial construction, residential development, and infrastructure work. The dry van market, anchored by major hubs like Atlanta, is also holding steady with strong e-commerce and retail fulfillment activity.
Midwest (OH/IN/IL/MI/WI/MN/IA/MO/KY) The Midwest has emerged as a freight powerhouse, offering the highest average rates for both dry van ($2.16 per mile) and reefer ($2.62 per mile). Its central location and diverse industrial base, including automotive, food production, and vast distribution networks, provide a reliable and consistent volume of freight. The upcoming fall grain harvest will further boost activity for bulk haulers and could tighten capacity for other freight types.
South Central (TX/OK/AR/LA and surrounding) This is a dynamic market defined by its strong ties to the energy and construction sectors. Flatbed rates are a close second nationally, averaging $2.62 per mile, driven by major highway and industrial projects. However, data indicates a notable 35% year-over-year reduction in oil and gas drilling, which has caused some Houston outbound flatbed rates to decline. Cross-border trade with Mexico remains a significant driver for van and reefer freight along the I-35 corridor.
Southwest (AZ/NM/NV/UT and Mountain West) The Southwest is largely a pass-through region, with freight dynamics heavily influenced by seasonal shifts. Dry van rates are in the middle of the national average at $2.06 per mile, but flatbed rates are the lowest nationally at $2.21 per mile, as many open-deck carriers reposition to the more profitable Southern markets.
Western Region (West Coast: CA/OR/WA) The Western freight market is characterized by a rebound in port volumes and the beginning of a major agricultural season. While the Port of Los Angeles had its busiest month ever in July, the most compelling freight opportunity is the start of the Pacific Northwest produce harvest. A record apple crop in Washington and a strong potato harvest in Idaho are expected to create a predictable and significant spike in reefer rates on long-haul lanes to the East Coast through the fall.
Intermodal & Port Insights
Port Volume Shifts and Inland Activity A notable trend is the continued shift of import volumes toward East and Gulf Coast gateways. The Port of New York/New Jersey has been a standout, with a 4.9% increase in volume in the first half of 2025. Similarly, the Port of Savannah reported its second-busiest year on record, and Port Houston saw an impressive 21% increase in container volumes in July. This sustained growth is creating strong demand for drayage and regional trucking services from these major ports.
Rail Consolidation and Drayage Market Dynamics The announced merger agreement between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern could reshape the competitive landscape of American rail. While the merger faces significant regulatory scrutiny, it signals a strategic push by railroads to become a more competitive alternative to long-haul trucking by potentially improving efficiency and reducing transit times. In the short term, the drayage market continues to face pressure from volume unpredictability, recent carrier bankruptcies, and a national oversupply of standard chassis.
The Government Freight Advantage
Government-funded projects are a critical and stable source of freight demand, largely insulated from the volatility of the consumer sector. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is consistently funding projects nationwide, creating a steady need for the transport of construction materials. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, for example, has forecast numerous dredging, remediation, and repair projects across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Division, providing stable, high-margin work for specialized carriers.
Additionally, the active Atlantic hurricane season presents another significant opportunity. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is actively preparing by awarding advance contracts for the transport of temporary housing and other supplies. These government contracts can be highly lucrative for carriers who are on subcontractor lists for major relief firms, providing high-paying work that can completely change a fleet's revenue stream overnight should a storm hit a coastal area.
Fall Market Watch List
PNW Produce Surge: Keep an eye on the Pacific Northwest apple and potato harvests through September and October. This is the most predictable seasonal event on the horizon and is expected to create a sharp spike in reefer rates.
Hurricane Season Activity: The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is underway. A major storm landfall would immediately disrupt freight flows and create a sudden surge in high-paying emergency and debris-hauling work.
Carrier Exits and Capacity Rebalancing: The ongoing purge of small carriers is the primary driver of market tightening. The market is now in a fragile state, and any unexpected surge in demand could cause a sudden and significant spike in spot rates.
Evolving Tariff and Trade Policies: New tariff escalations are actively disrupting global supply chains and causing importers to shift trade routes. This uncertainty will likely continue to fuel the shift of import volumes to East and Gulf Coast ports and increase the importance of domestic, regional freight flows.
Rail Consolidation Impact: While a long-term strategic move, the announcement of the Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger is a significant signal that rail is looking to increase its competitiveness against trucking. It merits close monitoring for its long-term strategic implications.
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