Freight market report for small carriers
Market headlines don't pay your truck payment. This guide shows you which public freight data is worth watching, how to read it, and how to turn it into a rate you can defend on your own lanes.
Why a small carrier should read the market
A one- to five-truck company doesn't set the market. But it lives or dies by it. When freight volume drops, brokers have more trucks than loads and offers fall. When volume climbs or trucks leave the market, rates rise and you can be choosier.
Knowing which way things are moving tells you when to hold out for a better rate, when to lock in a steady customer, and when to cut costs before a slow stretch. It's the first station in the circle we teach: freight research comes before the right load.
This page is an evergreen guide. It doesn't quote today's rates, because they change every day and vary by lane. Instead it points you to the public sources and shows you how to use them.
Spot rates and contract rates
There are two kinds of truckload rates, and they move differently.
Spot rates are prices for a single load, booked now, usually through a broker or a load board. They react fast to changes in supply and demand.
Contract rates are prices a shipper agrees to with a carrier or broker for a lane over a period of months. They move slower and usually trail the spot market.
When spot rates climb above contract rates, carriers are in a stronger position and shippers start having trouble covering freight. When spot rates sit well below contract rates for a long time, the market has more trucks than freight, and small carriers feel it first.
Public data sources worth watching
These are free, published by government agencies, and updated on a regular schedule.
Freight Transportation Services Index (BTS)
The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics publishes a monthly index of for-hire freight shipments across modes, including trucking. It shows whether overall freight volume is growing or shrinking. See the index and its release schedule.
Producer Price Index for truckload (BLS)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks prices for long-distance truckload general freight trucking. It's a slow, steady read on the direction of truckload pricing. View the series on FRED.
Refrigerated truck reports (USDA)
USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service publishes refrigerated truck reports on produce truck rates and availability from major shipping regions. Useful for reefer carriers. See the Agricultural Refrigerated Truck Quarterly.
Weekly diesel prices (EIA)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly retail diesel prices, nationally and by region. Fuel is one of your biggest costs. Our diesel fuel prices guide explains how to read them.
How to turn market data into a rate
Market data is only useful when it's tied to your own numbers.
Know your cost per mile
Add up fixed costs (truck payment, insurance, permits) and variable costs (fuel, maintenance, tires, driver pay) and divide by the miles you run. This is the floor. A load below it loses money no matter what the market says.
Check your lane, not just the national number
National averages hide big differences. An outbound lane from a busy market and the return lane can pay very differently. Keep your own record of what each lane has paid. Our guide to trucking lanes explains why.
Read the direction, not the headline
Look at whether volume and prices are rising or falling over several weeks or months. One week's number can mislead you.
Price in the deadhead
Count the empty miles to the pickup and from the delivery to your next load. A high rate into a dead market can earn less than a fair rate into a strong one.
Set your walk-away number before you call
Decide the lowest rate you'll take before you talk to the broker. Then compare the offer with what you found. See our rate confirmation checklist for what to check before you sign.
Patterns small carriers watch through the year
Every year is different, but some patterns come back often enough to plan around.
- Produce seasons raise reefer demand out of growing regions, and that pulls trucks away from dry van.
- Retail shipping for the holidays tends to build in late summer and fall.
- Holidays take drivers off the road, which can tighten capacity for a few days around them.
- Shippers often push freight out at the end of a month or quarter.
- Severe weather can shut lanes and move rates sharply in the affected region.
- Fuel price swings change every carrier's cost per mile at the same time.
Want us to do the research?
Freight research is part of how we run trucking companies for our clients: lanes, shippers and rates checked before the truck is booked. It's also included with our dispatch service at 8% of each load's gross.
Questions and answers
Where can I find current truckload spot rates?
Load boards and freight data companies publish spot rate data, often behind a subscription. Free public sources like the BTS Freight Transportation Services Index and the BLS truckload price index show the direction of the market, but not the rate on your lane. Your own lane history is the best number you have.
How often should I check the market?
Diesel prices weekly, freight volume and price indexes monthly, and your own lane rates every time you book. Watch the trend over several weeks rather than reacting to one number.
Related
Freight research for trucking companies
Freight research means finding the shippers and lanes that fit your equipment before the truck rolls, not after it is sitting empty. It is where every good load starts.
Diesel fuel prices and what they mean for your costs
Fuel is one of the biggest costs a trucking company carries, and it changes every week.
More than dispatch: logistics support for your trucking company
Our dispatch service is 8% of the gross of each load, and it is more than dispatch.
How to understand trucking traffic lanes
How trucking lanes work: deadhead, terrain, tolls and freight availability, and how each one shapes what a lane pays the carrier.
How owner-operators find loads: a three-channel freight plan and lane math
How owner-operators find loads in a slow market: build a three-channel freight pipeline, use the spot market with care and run lane math before booking.
Free resources for trucking companies
These guides are free, written for owners of small trucking companies, and built around one question: what does this mean for your truck and your cash?
Get help reading your lanes
Tell us your equipment, home base and the lanes you run. We'll tell you what we see.
Prefer the phone? Call 901-205-9679.
Sources
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Transportation Services Index (Transportation as an Economic Indicator)
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Transportation Services Index release schedule
- BLS Producer Price Index by Industry: General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance Truckload (PCU484121484121), via FRED
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service — Agricultural Refrigerated Truck Quarterly
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update